October 15, 2026

Holiday shoppers begin planning earlier each year, and the brands that reach them do so across a longer, multi-step journey rather than a single promotional weekend. Bain & Company forecasts November and December 2026 retail sales of about $1.016 trillion, up 4.5%, while Adobe expects online sales of $275.1 billion, up 6.7%. Mastercard Economics Institute expects retail sales (excluding autos and gas) to rise 5.5% from November 1 to December 24, the strongest pace since 2022, with online forecast to rise 11% and in-store up 3.6%. Capturing that spend requires both established tactics and newer influence points that shape discovery, comparison, and purchase.

So, what are the best ways to reach holiday shoppers this season?

Start Early with Owned Channels
Email and SMS remain the most controllable ways to reach known buyers. During the 2025 peak season, Mailchimp customers with connected ecommerce stores recorded more than $1.1 billion in gross revenue attributable to email and SMS campaigns. Emails that used segmentation and dynamic content delivered 11% higher average order value during Black Friday and Cyber Monday than those that did not. Abandoned-cart content blocks produced 36% higher open rates and 28% higher click rates. SMS played a complementary role, delivering up to six times the order rate of email and three times the revenue per message, contributing nearly 20% of combined ecommerce revenue for brands using both channels. Generative AI also lifted results, with AI-assisted emails showing a 50% higher order rate and a 33% higher conversion rate. Brands should grow lists well before November, trigger messages from browse and cart behavior, and reserve texts for urgent updates such as low-stock alerts or shipping deadlines.

Turn Social Discovery into Direct Sales
Social platforms now function as both inspiration sources and checkout destinations. Adobe Analytics reported that U.S. consumers spent $257.8 billion online from November 1 to December 31, 2025, a 6.8% increase year over year. Revenue from shoppers arriving via social media rose 40.3%, lifting social’s share of online holiday revenue to 4.6%. Affiliates and partners, including influencers, accounted for 20.4% of online holiday revenue. A Tinuiti survey of 1,000 U.S. holiday shoppers found that 39% get gift inspiration from social media, a figure that climbs to 55% among Gen Z. 71% of Gen Z cite TikTok for gifting ideas, and 68% of that group have purchased a gift after an influencer endorsement. TikTok Shop recorded more than $500 million in U.S. sales over the 2025 Black Friday to Cyber Monday period, with nearly 50% more shoppers than the year before and 84% sales growth for brands hosting livestreams. Effective programs pair creator content with shoppable ads and live sessions, then retarget engaged viewers who have not yet purchased.

Use AI to Influence Research and Recommendations
Artificial intelligence has become a measurable step in the path to purchase. Salesforce data showed AI and agents driving 20% of 2025 holiday retail sales. Shoppers referred from AI-powered search channels converted nine times more often than those arriving from social media. Adobe separately recorded a 693.4% year-over-year increase in traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools. 58% of shoppers in the Tinuiti study said they plan to use AI to help them shop. Brands can respond by structuring product data for answer engines, deploying on-site agents for recommendations and service, and feeding first-party signals into personalized offers before a shopper opens an external chatbot.

Close with Value, Speed, and Coordinated Timing
Mobile devices accounted for 56.4% of U.S. online holiday spending in November and December 2025, so pages must load quickly and support simple checkout, buy-now-pay-later options, and clear delivery promises. Transparent discounts, loyalty early access, and practical gift guides still convert browsers who are balancing budgets. Digiday research found that 81% of brand and retailer professionals planned to use digital and social media ads for the 2025 season, while 69% intended to sell through social commerce. The strongest results come from linking these paid efforts to owned email, SMS, and creator activity so each channel reinforces the same offer and timeline.

The holiday season rewards programs that treat discovery, nurture, and conversion as one sequence. Brands and agencies that measure performance at each step, from first social impression to repeat purchase, are positioned to capture a larger share of the trillion-dollar period.

Sources:

• Bain & Company, holiday shopping outlook, September 2026
• Mastercard Economics Institute, holiday shopping forecast, September 2026
• Intuit Mailchimp, peak season marketing insights based on 2025 data
• Adobe Analytics, 2025 U.S. holiday shopping report
• Tinuiti, 2025 Holiday Shopping Trends study
• TikTok Shop, Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 results
• Salesforce, 2025 holiday shopping data
• Digiday research on brand and retailer 2025 holiday marketing strategies